منابع مشابه
Systematic Global Testing of Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction Algorithms
The systematic testing of intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithms is faced with the difficulties of (1) the limited time spanned by instrumental catalogs of seismicity in most areas of the world, and (2) the relative arbitrariness of the selection of the region and time interval over which to apply the algorithm. We offer a systematic method which uses worldwide seismicity to compute...
متن کاملStatistical short-term earthquake prediction.
A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitu...
متن کاملShort-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics
Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec. 22, 2003) and the Tokachi-Oki earthqua...
متن کاملRethinking Earthquake Prediction
We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...
متن کاملEarthquake prediction : a political problem ?
Earthquake prediction is an area of research of great scientific and public fascination. The reason for this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also because earthquakes can have a large social and economic impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the sense of making deterministic predictions about the place, time, and magnitude o...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
سال: 1996
ISSN: 0027-8424,1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.93.9.3748